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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Pittsburgh Steelers
4th & 1 at the 32
Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 6
What Actually Happened
(4:50) 34-De.Williams up the middle to KC 32 for no gain (55-D.Ford).
The Three Options
GO
+2.15 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.47 EP
KICK
+0.91 EP
- 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
- 31% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
