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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model