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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:11) 5-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model