Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(13:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model