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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.92 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model