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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 17

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 34-De.Williams up the middle to KC 14 for 3 yards (29-E.Berry; 96-J.Howard).

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.72 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model