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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.98 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP