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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
Thursday 2015-10-22 · 20:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SEA
52.7%
SF
47.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): -0.022 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
SF 21
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

SEA

Derrick Coleman RB Out Concussion
Jordan Hill DT Out Quadricep
Patrick Lewis C Out Ankle
Nick Moody LB Out Ankle
Marcus Burley CB Out Hand
Demarcus Dobbs DE Questionable Shoulder
Cliff Avril DE Probable Ankle
Justin Britt G Probable Hip
Kam Chancellor S Probable Shoulder
Frank Clark DE Probable Hamstring
Garry Gilliam T Probable Ankle
Tyler Lockett WR Probable Hip
Marshawn Lynch RB Probable Hamstring
Richard Sherman CB Probable Ankle
Tye Smith CB Probable Hip
Bobby Wagner LB Probable Pectoral

SF

Anquan Boldin WR Questionable Hamstring
Carlos Hyde RB Questionable Foot
Erik Pears T Questionable Back
Alex Boone G Probable Shoulder
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Shoulder
Ahmad Brooks LB Probable Shoulder
Reggie Bush RB Probable Calf
Vernon Davis TE Probable Knee
Bruce Ellington WR Probable Calf
Vance McDonald TE Probable Chest
Eric Reid S Probable Chest
Joe Staley T Probable Knee
Brandon Thomas G Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 20
–
SF 3

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:05 TD SEA (7:05) 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 09:43 FG SEA (9:43) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 10 – SF 0
  • Q2 02:53 TD SEA (2:53) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – SF 0
  • Q3 01:26 FG SF (1:26) 9-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SEA 17 – SF 3
  • Q4 09:29 FG SEA (9:29) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 20 – SF 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 39 for 4 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (8:49) 24-M.Lynch up the middle to SF 1 for 2 yards (95-C.Carradine).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 25, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 10 yards (35-E.Reid). PENALTY on SEA-13-C.Matthews, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 25. T.Lockett credited with return of 0 yds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 24%

    (1:10) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to SF 11, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-83-R.Lockette.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to SEA 29, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 34 for 5 yards (50-N.Bellore, 35-E.Reid).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 71%

    (9:43) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 48%

    (5:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to SEA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-35-E.Reid.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:49) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to SEA 27, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 27 for no gain.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to SEA 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%

    (1:26) 9-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 77%

    (9:29) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 20 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (7:14) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 19 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:00) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to SF 20, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 23-R.Bush. PENALTY on SF-11-Q.Patton, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 43 for 2 yards (31-L.McCray).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 18%

    (3:53) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:13) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to SEA 25, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.