Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(9:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to SEA 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.01 EP
57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model