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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 9-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.03 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP