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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 17 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model