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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 87

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.53 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 87, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model