Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 20

(4:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 43 for 2 yards (31-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.57 EP
51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model