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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 6 at the 53
Seattle Seahawks 20 – San Francisco 49ers 3
What Actually Happened
(3:53) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.37 EP
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.42 EP
- 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.33 EP
KICK
-1.29 EP
- 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
- 82% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT
-0.25 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
