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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to SF 11, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-83-R.Lockette.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model