Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(13:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to SEA 29, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 34 for 5 yards (50-N.Bellore, 35-E.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model