4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(11:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CIN 35, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to CIN 50 for 15 yards (45-R.Nix). PENALTY on CIN-24-A.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 50.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.38 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model