Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CIN offense: +0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- PIT offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.512 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.378 EPA/dropback (PIT starting Ben Roethlisberger in place of Landry Jones)
- PIT defense: -0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- CIN on 7 more days rest than PIT
- CIN defense: +0.015 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 8
CIN
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:49 TD PIT (7:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – PIT 6
- Q1 02:54 FG CIN (2:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – PIT 7
- Q2 15:00 FG CIN (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – PIT 7
- Q3 06:31 FG PIT (6:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 6 – PIT 10
- Q4 03:01 TD CIN (3:01) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – PIT 10
- Q4 01:51 FG CIN (1:51) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 16 – PIT 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%
(2:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CIN 43, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to PIT 39 for 18 yards (98-V.Williams).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 13 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%
(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 19 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(11:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CIN 35, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to CIN 50 for 15 yards (45-R.Nix). PENALTY on CIN-24-A.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 50.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(9:22) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 24 yards to 50, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 37%
(7:53) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to CIN 10, Center-60-G.Warren. 19-B.Tate to CIN 15 for 5 yards (46-W.Johnson, 51-S.Spence).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 38Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 51%
(3:06) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 30%
(:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 5, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 43%
(13:19) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%
(6:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%
(2:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-C.Heyward), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber, RECOVERED by PIT-94-L.Timmons at PIT 23. 94-L.Timmons to PIT 24 for 1 yard (81-T.Kroft). PENALTY on PIT-92-J.Harrison, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced at PIT 24.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 20 at the 35Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 22% p(FG) 59%
(13:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 18 yards to CIN 17, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(7:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to CIN 24, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-51-S.Spence.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 26 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%
(1:51) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown →
