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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 5, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model