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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:19) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.89 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP