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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 24

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-C.Heyward), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber, RECOVERED by PIT-94-L.Timmons at PIT 23. 94-L.Timmons to PIT 24 for 1 yard (81-T.Kroft). PENALTY on PIT-92-J.Harrison, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced at PIT 24.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model