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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to CIN 24, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-51-S.Spence.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model