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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 86

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CIN 43, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to PIT 39 for 18 yards (98-V.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.19 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 86, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 44, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model