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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 7 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model