Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- DEN defense: -0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to GB: Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.104 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.224 EPA/dropback
- DEN offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
GB
DEN
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:43 TD DEN (4:43) 23-R.Hillman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DEN 6
- Q2 14:10 TD DEN (14:10) (Shotgun) 23-R.Hillman up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DEN 13
- Q2 07:51 FG DEN (7:51) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. GB 0 – DEN 17
- Q2 03:02 TD GB (3:02) (Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DEN 17
- Q3 09:13 FG GB (9:13) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 10 – DEN 17
- Q3 05:32 TD DEN (5:32) (Shotgun) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – DEN 23
- Q4 12:28 FG DEN (12:28) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. GB 10 – DEN 27
- Q4 12:21 SAF DEN (12:21) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 4 for -9 yards (94-D.Ware). FUMBLES (94-D.Ware) [94-D.Ware], touched at GB 3, recovered by GB-82-R.Rodgers at GB 0. 82-R.Rodgers tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (97-M.Jackson). GB 10 – DEN 29
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 49%
(12:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to GB 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 33-M.Hyde to GB 23 for 9 yards (48-S.Barrett; 52-C.Nelson).
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Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(9:43) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to DEN 16, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 17 for 1 yard (24-Q.Rollins).
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Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:55) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to DEN 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 25 for 5 yards (24-Q.Rollins). PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.
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Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EPp(convert) 71%
(12:07) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to DEN 22, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 68%
(7:51) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
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Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 50%
(9:13) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
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Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:17) 8-T.Masthay punts 42 yards to DEN 20, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%
(12:28) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
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Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(7:02) 8-T.Masthay punts 47 yards to DEN 21, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 27 for 6 yards (32-C.Banjo).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 13 at the 43 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 39%
(1:16) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to GB 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.