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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 10 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 8-T.Masthay punts 42 yards to DEN 20, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model