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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 43

Denver Broncos 29 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to GB 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.30 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP