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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to DEN 16, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 17 for 1 yard (24-Q.Rollins).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model