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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to CHI 40, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-M.Mariani MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CHI 47.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP