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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

MIN
48.6%
CHI
51.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: +0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CHI on 7 more days rest than MIN
  • CHI offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Jay Cutler (CHI) +0.108 vs Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.006 EPA/dropback
  • MIN offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIN

Rhett Ellison TE Out Concussion
Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Justin Trattou DE Out Foot
Audie Cole LB Out Finger
Tom Johnson DT Probable Knee
Zach Line RB Probable Neck
Adam Thielen WR Probable Ankle
Jarius Wright WR Probable Concussion
Adrian Peterson RB Probable Hip

CHI

Shea McClellin LB Doubtful Knee
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Shoulder
Bruce Gaston DT Questionable Illness
Hroniss Grasu C Questionable Neck
Antrel Rolle S Questionable Ankle
Pernell McPhee LB Probable Not Injury Related
Patrick Omameh G Probable Ankle
Matt Slauson G Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 23
–
CHI 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:03 FG CHI (11:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 0 – CHI 3
  • Q1 03:53 TD MIN (3:53) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 35, Center-43-T.Gafford. 35-M.Sherels for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CHI 3
  • Q2 09:11 FG MIN (9:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 10 – CHI 3
  • Q2 00:49 TD CHI (:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left to 17-A.Jeffery for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – CHI 9
  • Q3 08:33 FG CHI (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 10 – CHI 13
  • Q4 13:34 FG MIN (13:34) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 13 – CHI 13
  • Q4 05:00 TD CHI (5:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIN 13 – CHI 19
  • Q4 02:00 TD MIN (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – CHI 20
  • Q4 00:04 FG MIN (:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 23 – CHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:13) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to CHI 40, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-M.Mariani MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CHI 47.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 56%

    (11:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 26%

    (6:06) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to CHI 11, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-M.Mariani MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 13. 80-M.Mariani pushed ob at CHI 16 for 3 yards (58-B.Watts). MIN-58-B.Watts was injured during the play.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:53) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 35, Center-43-T.Gafford. 35-M.Sherels for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to MIN 24, Center-43-T.Gafford. 35-M.Sherels MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 24.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 81%

    (9:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:02) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to MIN 37, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%

    (4:22) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to CHI 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to MIN 16, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 93%

    (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 37%

    (5:34) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 31 yards to CHI 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 64%

    (1:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%

    (13:34) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 64%

    (8:03) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery to MIN 28 for 5 yards (29-X.Rhodes).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to MIN 22, Center-43-T.Gafford. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 34 for 12 yards (52-L.Reynolds).