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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 15

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(8:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.26 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP