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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 33

Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.25 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model