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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 33

Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(8:03) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery to MIN 28 for 5 yards (29-X.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.67 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model