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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 75

Chicago Bears 20 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to MIN 22, Center-43-T.Gafford. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 34 for 12 yards (52-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.78 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model