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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 80

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(3:53) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 35, Center-43-T.Gafford. 35-M.Sherels for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.36 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model