Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to DAL 30, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley. SEA-83-R.Lockette was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on DAL-38-J.Heath, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.36 EP
50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -2.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model