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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SEA
58.5%
DAL
41.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SEA: Matt Cassel (DAL) -0.290 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.001 EPA/dropback
  • SEA defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than DAL
  • Matt Cassel (DAL) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
DAL 20
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SEA

Russell Okung T Questionable Toe
Cliff Avril DE Probable Ankle
Michael Bennett DE Probable Not Injury Related
Marcus Burley CB Probable Hand
Derrick Coleman RB Probable Concussion
Demarcus Dobbs DE Probable Shoulder
Jordan Hill DT Probable Quadricep
Patrick Lewis C Probable Ankle
Marshawn Lynch RB Probable Hamstring
Nick Moody LB Probable Ankle
Thomas Rawls RB Probable Calf

DAL

Joseph Randle RB Out Back
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Foot
Barry Church S Questionable Ankle
Brice Butler WR Probable Hamstring
Morris Claiborne CB Probable Illness
James Hanna TE Probable Ankle
Demarcus Lawrence DE Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 13
–
DAL 12

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:51 FG SEA (8:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 3 – DAL 0
  • Q1 00:48 FG DAL (:48) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. SEA 3 – DAL 3
  • Q2 05:33 TD SEA (5:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 82-L.Willson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a seam route. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SEA 9 – DAL 3
  • Q2 01:38 FG DAL (1:38) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. SEA 10 – DAL 6
  • Q3 08:56 FG DAL (8:56) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. SEA 10 – DAL 9
  • Q4 14:32 FG DAL (14:32) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. SEA 10 – DAL 12
  • Q4 01:10 FG SEA (1:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 13 – DAL 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (8:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 41%

    (4:26) 20-D.McFadden left guard to SEA 42 for 3 yards (26-C.Williams; 50-K.Wright).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (:48) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:54) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to DAL 23, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:39) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to SEA 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:55) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to DAL 35, Center-49-C.Gresham. 23-C.White MUFFS catch, recovered by DAL-27-J.Wilcox at DAL 35. PENALTY on DAL-57-D.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 35.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:14) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to SEA 35, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 93%

    (1:38) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:19) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to DAL 30, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley. SEA-83-R.Lockette was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on DAL-38-J.Heath, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 30.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 68%

    (8:56) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:29) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to DAL 13, Center-49-C.Gresham. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 21 for 8 yards (58-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 24%

    (3:31) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to SEA 5, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-52-A.Gachkar.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (14:32) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 78%

    (9:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-D.Irving), Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan, RECOVERED by DAL-27-J.Wilcox at DAL 8. 27-J.Wilcox to DAL 27 for 19 yards (82-L.Willson).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at DAL 25 for 62 yards (52-A.Gachkar). PENALTY on SEA-25-R.Sherman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 25. Lockett orginally ran out of bounds at the Dallas 49 prior to the penalty.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (1:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.