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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 34

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(8:56) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.93 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model