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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to DAL 13, Center-49-C.Gresham. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 21 for 8 yards (58-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.75 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model