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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(3:31) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to SEA 5, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-52-A.Gachkar.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model