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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(14:32) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.57 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP