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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Dallas Cowboys 12

What Actually Happened

(9:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-D.Irving), Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan, RECOVERED by DAL-27-J.Wilcox at DAL 8. 27-J.Wilcox to DAL 27 for 19 yards (82-L.Willson).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.18 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model