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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP