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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 12 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(7:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at DAL 25 for 62 yards (52-A.Gachkar). PENALTY on SEA-25-R.Sherman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 25. Lockett orginally ran out of bounds at the Dallas 49 prior to the penalty.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.60 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model