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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Dallas Cowboys 12

What Actually Happened

(1:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 6, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model