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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 20-D.McFadden left guard to SEA 42 for 3 yards (26-C.Williams; 50-K.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.06 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model