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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to DAL 23, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model