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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(12:39) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to SEA 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.59 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 28, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model