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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 64-K.Pamphile reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston sacked at TB 40 for 0 yards (37-R.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.56 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -2.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model