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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 13:00 Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

TB
33.4%
ATL
66.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.121 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 19
–
ATL 26
Projected margin: ATL by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TB

Tony McDaniel DT Out Groin
Reid Fragel T Out Concussion
Vincent Jackson WR Doubtful Knee
Clinton McDonald DT Doubtful Pectoral
Major Wright S Doubtful Hamstring
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Doubtful Shoulder
Logan Mankins G Probable Not Injury Related
Russell Shepard WR Probable Hamstring
Evan Smith C Probable Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Probable Shoulder

ATL

Leonard Hankerson WR Out Hamstring
William Moore S Out Groin
Nick Williams WR Questionable Hamstring
O'Brien Schofield LB Probable Knee
Jonathan Babineaux DT Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 23
–
ATL 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:58 FG ATL (7:58) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 02:08 FG TB (2:08) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 03:36 FG TB (3:36) 10-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 00:35 TD TB (:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 84-C.Brate for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – ATL 3
  • Q3 06:11 TD TB (6:11) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – ATL 3
  • Q3 00:19 TD ATL (:19) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 83-J.Tamme for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – ATL 9
  • Q4 05:00 FG ATL (5:00) 3-M.Bryant 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 20 – ATL 13
  • Q4 00:23 TD ATL (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – ATL 19
  • Q5 07:57 FG TB (7:57) 10-C.Barth 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 23 – ATL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (10:08) 2-M.Ryan right guard to TB 12 for 2 yards (92-W.Gholston). PENALTY on TB-23-C.Conte, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at TB 12.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (7:58) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 34%

    (3:50) 5-J.Schum punts 36 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (2:08) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (3:36) 10-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:11) 5-J.Schum punts 53 yards to ATL 26, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to 50 for 24 yards (46-J.Lane).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:17) 5-J.Schum punts 38 yards to ATL 18, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 17 for -1 yards (89-R.Shepard).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:21) 24-D.Freeman right tackle to ATL 45 for 2 yards (90-H.Melton).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (5:00) 3-M.Bryant 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:00) 64-K.Pamphile reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston sacked at TB 40 for 0 yards (37-R.Allen).